The Oscars 2013: Hoff Matthews Picks the Winners!

Hey there! Have you caught Oscar fever? Are you scouring the web for tips that will help you win your office pool? Well, you’ve come to the right place! Most of you may know me as a comedian, but I’m actually heavily involved in the film and TV industry as well—so heavily involved, in fact, that I have not just one but two IMDb profiles to my name! (Actually, they’re both listed under the name “Matt Hoffman,” a pseudonym I use for my behind-the-scenes gigs so as to avoid being mobbed by fans.) So read on as I use my wealth of insider knowledge to clue you in on who will win—and, more importantly, who DESERVES to win—the six Academy Awards that anybody actually cares about.

BEST PICTURE

The Contenders: Amour, Argo, Beasts of the Southern Wild, Django Unchained, Les Misérables, Life of Pi, Lincoln, Silver Linings Playbook, Zero Dark Thirty

Will Win: Argo, without a doubt. Ben Affleck’s tale of the Iranian hostage crisis swept the American Gaffers’ Union Awards back in January, was awarded Best Picture by the hugely influential Hartford Film Critics Association and is the only contender to currently hold a spot on the “Employees’ Picks” shelf of the Boise, Idaho Blockbuster, which has successfully predicted the Academy’s big winner in eighteen of the last twenty non-Jubilee years. If Argo doesn’t win Best Picture, I’ll burn my own face off!

Should Win: My friend Jon worked on Beasts of the Southern Wild as a PA, and Jon’s a pretty cool guy, so it would be cool for the winner to be a thing he worked on. And the movie’s pretty good, too! Probably better than Argo, which can’t be as good as everybody says it is or I would’ve gotten around to watching it by now.

BEST DIRECTOR

The Contenders: Michael Haneke (Amour), Ang Lee (Life of Pi), David O. Russell (Silver Linings Playbook), Steven Spielberg (Lincoln), Benh Zeitlin (Beasts of the Southern Wild)

Will Win: This one’s tough. Ang Lee’s an accomplished veteran who’s won a few times in the past, but industry sentiment may have turned against him after an unfortunate incident at the BAFTA Awards after-after-party in which he unwittingly took the last coconut shrimp before the hors d’oeuvres tray had reached Bob Iger. Expect that gaffe to knock Oscar into the arms of Steven Spielberg, especially given Spielberg’s victory at the Los Angeles Caterers’ Guild Awards, which have an 89% success rate in predicting the Best Picture winner in Zodiac years of the Snake.

Should Win: I’m torn about this one, too. On the one hand, I went to see Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull being filmed on the Yale campus, and at one point Spielberg drove by and waved at me, or at the crowd of people I was in, so he seems pretty cool. But I think I have to go with Benh Zeitlin, because my friend Jon worked on Beasts of the Southern Wild as a PA, and Jon’s a pretty cool guy, so it would be cool for the winner to be a guy he worked for.

BEST ACTOR

The Contenders: Bradley Cooper (Silver Linings Playbook), Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln), Hugh Jackman (Les Misérables), Joaquin Phoenix (The Master), Denzel Washington (Flight)

Will Win: The tea leaves in the cup I just finished are forming a spade pattern, whereas the sheep entrails I’ve been stirring for the last hour have settled into more of a hexagonal design. Strong winds are blowing from the north, and Deadline.com is reporting that several Californian orphans have experienced troubling dreams of a many-headed beast approaching from across a great wasteland. Let’s just say things are looking good for Daniel Day-Lewis!

Should Win: Flight may not have done boffo box office, but it would be nice to see more recognition for nuanced, down-to-earth performances like the one Denzel Washington delivered this year. Plus my friend Nick met him at a hotel once and says he’s a super nice guy!

BEST ACTRESS

The Contenders: Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty), Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook), Emmanuelle Riva (Amour), Quvenzhané Wallis (Beasts of the Southern Wild), Naomi Watts (The Impossible)

Will Win: In Nostradamus’s quatrain X-XCVIII he predicts that “For the merry maid the bright splendor/Will shine no longer, for long will she be without salt;/With merchants, bullies, wolves odious,/All confusion universal monster.” If that’s not a reference to a Jennifer Lawrence victory, I don’t know what is!

Should Win: My friend Jon, who worked on Beasts of the Southern Wild as a PA, says Quvenzhané Wallis is pretty cool. I mean, I don’t think he’s met her himself or anything, but that’s what he’s heard about her.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

The Contenders: Alan Arkin (Argo), Robert De Niro (Silver Linings Playbook), Philip Seymour Hoffman (The Master), Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln), Christoph Waltz (Django Unchained)

Will Win: I just Googled this one. HuffPo says it’s going to be Tommy Lee Jones. They’ve got numbers and stuff, so they probably know what they’re talking about.

Should Win: I have no personal connection to anyone in this category, but Philip Seymour Hoffman always seems like he could use a little cheering up.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

The Contenders: Amy Adams (The Master), Sally Field (Lincoln), Anne Hathaway (Les Misérables), Helen Hunt (The Sessions), Jacki Weaver (Silver Linings Playbook)

Will Win: Anne Hathaway is respected among her peers, and while Les Mis may not have been universally adored, one thing most people did agree on was the intensity of her performance, and that’s why I think she’ll walk away with the gold.  The Oscars may be very much about insidery backslapping and self-promotion, but sometimes they’re also about something else: Honoring the mysterious craft of drama.

Should Win: Amy Adams. She’s the hottest.